Guides
How to Use FreshStats
In-depth guides on getting the most out of every tool.
How to Use Pitch Arsenal
Learn how to read pitch mix data, whiff rates, and run values to identify pitcher-batter mismatches.
What is Pitch Arsenal?
The Pitch Arsenal tab shows every starting pitcher's pitch mix for today's games. For each pitch type you'll see usage percentage, average velocity, spin rate, whiff rate, and run value per 100 pitches.
Reading Run Value
Run Value per 100 (RV/100) measures how many runs a pitch saves or costs per 100 thrown. Negative is good for the pitcher — it means they're suppressing runs. Positive means batters are doing damage against it. Look for pitches with RV/100 below -1 as a pitcher's true weapon.
Whiff Rate
Whiff % is the percentage of swings that miss. Elite swing-and-miss pitches sit above 35%. When a pitcher's primary strikeout pitch has a high whiff rate, it's a strong indicator of a good strikeout prop.
Batter vs Pitch Type
Tap 'Show vs opposing batters' on any pitch to see how each batter in the opposing lineup has historically performed against that pitch type. Green rows indicate strong hitters against that pitch, red rows indicate weak ones. Use this to spot prop value on both sides.
Practical Example
A pitcher throws a sweeper 40% of the time with a 38% whiff rate and -2.1 RV/100. When you expand the batter matchup view and see three of the first four hitters are red (weak vs sweepers), that's a strong case for the over on strikeout props.
Understanding Fresh Ratings
A breakdown of how Fresh Ratings rank today's top HR candidates and how to use them alongside Props and weather data.
What is a Fresh Rating?
A Fresh Rating is a composite score from 1–100 representing a batter's likelihood of hitting a home run in today's game. Higher is better. Scores above 70 indicate strong conditions aligning in the batter's favor.
What goes into the score?
The model combines five factors: the batter's barrel rate and exit velocity from our advanced metrics, the opposing pitcher's HR/9 rate, the park factor for today's venue, and current weather conditions including wind speed and direction.
How to use the filters
Use the Min Rating slider to narrow the list to only high-confidence plays. Filter by team or position to focus your research. The search bar lets you look up a specific player quickly.
Rating vs Probability
Fresh Ratings show today's top 10 HR candidates ranked by situational factors — pitcher vulnerability, batter power profile, and lineup spot. The HR% shown below each rating is the raw probability. Use both together for the full picture.
Using the Props Tab
How to read prop probabilities, filter by game, and identify value for each prop type.
How probabilities are calculated
Each prop probability is a statistical estimate based on the player's season stats, recent performance, opponent quality, and park factors. They represent the model's estimate of how likely the outcome is based on historical data.
Prop types explained
Hit: probability of recording at least one hit. Total Bases: weighted probability of accumulating bases. H+R+RBI (HRR): combined probability score for multi-category production. Strikeout: probability of a batter striking out at least once.
Filtering by game
Use the game dropdown to focus on a single matchup. This is especially useful on days with double headers — each game is listed separately so you don't mix up players from different contests.
The plate appearance filter
The props list only shows players with 40 or more plate appearances. This filters out players with too small a sample to produce reliable probabilities.